老旧小区改造模式化推广探究--西安碑林区老旧小区改造为例

在我国社会建设与发展中,对于城镇老旧小区的改造是一项重大的民生工程以及发展工程,可以有效满足社会人民群众对于美好生活的需要,全面推进惠民生、扩内需,助推城市的更新以及开发建设方式的转型,可以促使我国民生工程取得更加良好的成效。文章首先探讨与分析老旧小区改造的重要意义,老旧小区模式化推广的必要性,文中通过实际案例分析,最后提出相应的建议,希望可以为相关企业老旧小区改造工程全面推进贡献出绵薄之力。     

中国自然保护地规划的回顾与对比研究

中国自然保护地历经60余年的发展，形成了多部门主导、保护类型多样的自然保护地体系。面对机构改革和以国家公园为主体的自然保护地体系建立的契机，传统规划的经验积累为新规划体系的构建提供了借鉴的可能。通过回溯机构改革前各类自然保护地规划，对比分析其规划结构体系，并从人地关系视角切入，分析各类规划针对保护对象、保护利用强度,以及社会发展调控上的差异，总结各类自然保护地规划的既有经验，为新时期规划体系的重构提供支撑。     

基于PSR模型的北京市西北生态涵养区生态健康评价研究

研究目的:作为保障首都生态环境质量与可持续发展的关键区域,北京市西北生态涵养区的生态健康程度反映了生态文明战略部署下首都高质量发展的综合成效。本文通过构建北京市西北生态涵养区健康评价指标体系,评价该区域的生态健康程度,为生态涵养区的可持续发展提供对策建议。研究方法:PSR模型、层次分析法(AHP)。研究结果:(1)基于PSR模型构建的生态健康评价指标体系包括压力、状态和响应系统3个准则层和10个评价指标,涵盖涵养区自然生态和人类活动影响;(2)研究区4个时段的健康指数分别为0.673、0.664、0.650、0.687,生态健康等级为一般。研究结论:北京市西北涵养区生态健康状况较为稳定,在保持西北涵养区建设现有成果的基础上,需要加大生态建设的力度,进一步提高生态健康水平。     

Land use regulation and urban land value: Evidence from China

Land use regulation has always been regarded as one of the most crucial means of macro-control of urban growth, which can affect a city’s land values directly and further determine related urban economic well-being. Since the New Type Urbanization Strategy proposed by the government in 2014, China’s mode of urban growth has been transformed from addressing “quantity” to “quality" in the urbanization process. In this case, the regulation of land use by the Chinese government plays a more important role in urban growth. With their planned land regulatory scheme, the various instruments employed by Chinese governments have quite different mechanisms influencing land prices. However, there are no rigorous studies focusing on the land use regulation system and its impact on land values to date, particular in China. This study seeks to explore how land use regulation affects urban land values through the systematic lens. We summarize the main land use regulatory instruments based on the analysis of China’s planned land use system and urban land banking system, including the construction land quota, constraints on the allowed floor area ratio (FAR) of each land transaction parcel, and land supply restrictions. A new dataset based on land transaction data from 2007 to 2016 that covers 286 prefectural cities from the country’s coastal, central, and western regions is used in the empirical analysis. The results show that the effects of the floor area ratio (FAR) on land values are significant and positive, with the residential and commercial land supply ratio being a key factor. Moreover, the results imply that the effects of constraints on FAR and commercial land supply vary between regions. These findings indicate that the Chinese land market is considerably distorted by excessive administrative interventions by local governments, in the stage of urban transition guided, the capable regulatory instruments could play an important role in adjusting urban land prices and hence impact on urban growth.     

Labor migration and the decoupling of the crop-livestock system in a rural mountainous area: Evidence from Chongqing,China

Massive out-migration of rural labor force brings both challenges and opportunities to crop-livestock integrated production system (crop-livestock system) in smallholder economy. Compared with previous researches that have paid major attention to the effect of labor migration on either crop production or livestock husbandry, this study considers the mediating role of crop production in predicting the effect of labor migration on livestock raising. Our econometric estimation based on a 2012 survey of 974 rural households in Chongqing, a mountainous region of China, showed the following. (1) The massive migration of rural labor force had led to significant increase in farmland abandonment and considerable changes in the pattern of livestock raising. (2) The livestock raising number per household began to differentiate, with the livestock system separating from the traditional crop-livestock system and becoming a specialized business. (3) In terms of the pathways through which rural labor migration exerts impact on livestock raising number, though the increased opportunity costs of rural labor greatly reduced farmers’ willingness to raise livestock, the decoupling of the crop-livestock system partly alleviated the declining trend in the livestock raising number because of the availability of household labor force freed from cropping via farmland abandonment. These findings have important policy implications for rural development and agricultural restructuring in mountainous areas of China, and provide references for other developing countries.     

基于联合分析法的城市住区绿地雨水设施 居民喜好度研究

城市化进程带来如城市内涝等诸多环境问题，使得 海绵城市和低影响开发成为热点。城市住区绿地作为城市绿地 的一个重要类型，既是住区居民重要的景观游憩场地，也是海 绵城市低影响开发的重要海绵体，是兼具径流绩效和景观绩效 等综合绩效的复合设施。如何让雨水设施在发挥径流绩效的同 时兼具满足居民需求的景观绩效，是目前相关研究的难点和热 点。居民喜好度的研究是住区绿地雨水设施景观绩效优化提升 的重要方法之一。通过联合分析法，遴选雨水收集、雨水转 输和雨水调蓄3个环节的源头减排雨水设施，模拟江南住区中 心绿地雨水设施场景收集居民评价，进行不同居民群体的设 施喜好度效用值相关性统计和住区绿地不同类型雨水设施效 用值及相对重要性分析。并通过走访、文献查阅解析所得数 据，为住区绿地雨水设施景观绩效提升和低影响开发设计提 供启示和借鉴。     

Modeling the time varying volatility of housing returns: Further evidence from the U.S. metropolitan condominium markets

This study extends the literature on modeling the volatility of housing returns to the case of condominium returns for five major U.S. metropolitan areas (Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, and San Francisco). Through the estimation of ARMA models for the respective condominium returns, we find volatility clustering of the residuals. The results from an ARMA‐TGARCH‐M model reveal the absence of asymmetry in the conditional variance. Dummy variables associated with the housing market collapse unique to each metropolitan area were statistically insignificant in the conditional variance equation, but negative and statistically significant in the mean equation. Condominium markets in Los Angeles and San Francisco exhibit the greatest persistence to volatility shocks.     

Inflation,real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters

Expectations are at the centre of modern macroeconomic theory and policymakers. In this article, we examine the predictive ability and the consistency properties of macroeconomic expectations using data of the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). In particular, we provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for three key macroeconomic variables: the inflation rate, the growth rate of real gross domestic product and the unemployment rate.     

价格支持政策对我国不同粮食作物播种面积变化的影响差异

［目的］文章评估了价格支持政策对不同粮食作物播种面积变化的平均效应与动态效应，并测度多种价格支持政策的交叉政策弹性。［方法］基于1998—2016年实施粮食价格支持政策省份面板数据，设立对照组，利用倾向得分匹配—双重差分方法（PSM DID）评估价格支持政策平均效应与动态效应，并构建粮食作物供给反应（Nerlove）模型测度价格支持政策的交叉政策弹性。［结果］（1）价格支持政策对水稻、小麦、玉米播种面积增加具有不同程度的推动作用，按大小依次为玉米>水稻>小麦，对大豆播种面积变化影响不显著； （2）价格支持政策持续时间越长，对水稻、玉米播种面积增加的推动作用越大，对小麦播种面积增加的推动作用较为稳定； （3）小麦、玉米播种面积变化主要来自自身价格支持政策，水稻播种面积变化除了受到自身价格支持政策影响外，还受到其他作物政策影响，大豆播种面积变化对玉米临储政策反应敏感，对自身价格支持政策反应不敏感。［结论］在制定粮食政策时既要区分政策及其持续性对不同粮食播种面积变化的影响差异，又要注意在同一地区实施多种粮食政策时，可能对不同作物产生交叉影响。     

基于POI提取的山地丘陵区乡村旅游空间分布研究*——以重庆市农家乐为例

［目的］通过大数据研究山地丘陵区乡村旅游的空间分布现状及规律，为乡村旅游规划提供参考借鉴。［方法］基于POI抓取技术，以2018年9月抓取到的重庆市1 644家农家乐为研究对象，结合各种地理基础数据资料，借助GIS分析手段，采用最近邻指数、K函数、核密度估计、Getis Ord Gi*热点分析和Moran′s I指数对重庆市农家乐空间分布特征进行研究。［结果］（1）重庆市农家乐分布整体呈现显著聚集趋势，空间自相关性显著； 主城区为聚集—随机分布，空间自相关性不显著； （2）市域范围农家乐聚集程度随空间尺度的增大而增强，主城区特征空间尺度为2139km； （3）农家乐在中部主城区集中连片分布，在主城外零散分布； （4）全市农家乐分布热点区域集中在中南部； （5）7044%的农家乐分布在距城市中心120km的范围内； （6）767%的农家乐分布在A级景区周边10km范围内，且倾向于分布在自然类景区和高等级景区周边； （7）中海拔地区为农家乐分布的主要区域。［结论］提出针对性的改善建议，以优化农家乐产业布局，促进乡村旅游发展与生态文明建设充分结合，更好助力乡村振兴。